California Tops the List of States Most Likely to Fail High School

Which states have the largest high school dropout rates?

The pandemic was not kind to the U.S. public education system. Months of school closures, disorganized moves to remote learning, and emotional stress and isolation for our nation’s students created major declines in knowledge gaps.

But some states faired better than others, and no stat shows this better than the 2022 U.S. Census Bureau data on high school attainment for those ages 25 and older. While Vermont maintained the lowest high school dropout rate at just over 5 percent, the country’s larger and poorer states faired much worse, with rates as high as 15 percent. Here are the five states most likely to fail high school.

5. Mississippi

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No. of people aged 25+: 1.96 million

Population with no high school diploma: 243,526

Percentage with no high school diploma: 12.4%

* Stats come from a QR Code Generator study that analyzed 2022 U.S. Census Bureau data on high school attainment for those ages 25 and older in each state.

Why Mississippi Ranks So Poorly

Mannsdale Elementary School in Madison, MS

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For decades, Mississippi has faced challenges in public education due to funding inequities for underresourced school districts, and the pandemic only exacerbated these issues. The state’s education system repeatedly lands in the bottom 10 for education on U.S. News and World Report rankings each year, and in 2008, it ranked dead last in academic achievement by the American Legislative Exchange Council’s Report Card since students had the lowest average ACT scores in the country.

The state’s main problem is funding since it also has one of the lowest spending per pupil rates in the country.

4. Nevada

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No. of people aged 25+: 2.22 million

Population with no high school diploma: 279,791

Percentage with no high school diploma: 12.58%

Why Nevada Ranks So Poorly

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While Nevada lands a bit higher in the U.S. News and World Report rankings for education, the state’s high school graduation rate is slightly worse than Mississippi at 12.58 percent. And in 2022, it was the only state in the country to receive an “F” for all three categories — funding level, funding distribution and funding effort — in a Making the Grade report from the Education Law Center.

Needless to say, funding is also a key factor in this state’s poor score.

3. Louisiana

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No. of people aged 25+: 3.1 million

Population with no high school diploma: 393,283

Percentage with no high school diploma: 12.7%

Why Louisiana Ranks So Poorly

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Louisiana is another state where poverty rates were directly correlated with worse education outcomes. One major factor in this is the state’s high rate of private school enrollment, which in turn means that Louisiana has the third-lowest public school enrollment rate in the nation and the second-highest wealth gap between private and public school families, according to The Washington Post.

Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry announced in March 2024 that he’s making education reform a major priority, citing the fact that only 70 percent of the state’s fourth graders can read, and a whopping 80 percent of its eighth graders can’t do basic math. But only time will tell if anything changes.

2. Texas

Fort Worth Museum of Science and History. Texas, USA

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No. of people aged 25+: 19.6 million

Population with no high school diploma: 2.72 million

Percentage with no high school diploma: 13.89%

Why Texas Ranks So Poorly

The Anheuser-Busch Washingtons Birthday Parade

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A few things plague public education in Texas, but teacher retention is a major factor. A 2022 poll found that 77 percent of Texas teachers were strongly considering leaving the field, up almost 20 percent since 2020.

Other issues facing the school system are funding, the importance placed on state testing and the fact that lawmakers passed a bill in 2015 that timed classroom instruction by minutes instead of days, leading to several schools moving to four-day school weeks.

1. California

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No. of people aged 25+: 26.87 million

Population with no high school diploma: 4.12 million

Percentage with no high school diploma: 15.32%

Why California Ranks So Poorly

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In an expensive state where money seems to be a constant issue, it’s no surprise that funding is another big reason why public education in California is lacking. And like other states on this list, the “fiscal cliff” that combines the expiration of federal COVID relief funds and a record-low for state funding combined with a 1 percent cost of living increase has put a lot of school districts into a pretty desperate position when it comes to budgeting.

In November 2024, California voters are expected to vote on a voucher program that would make it easier for families to pay for private school, but the last time a similar initiative was voted on more than 20 years ago, it lost 70 percent to 30 percent.